Dollar exchange rate forecast for March 2018

The fact that the wait for the Russians - the forecast of the dollar for March 2018 promises a fall in the domestic currency. Analysts refer to factors that can affect the ruble exchange rate. Among them: an increase in oil production and stabilization in global financial markets.


Latest news: what will happen to the dollar in Russia from March 1

According to the latest news, the uncertainty over the financing of the US federal government greatly influenced the course of the American currency, because the House of Representatives has not yet made a final decision on this issue. The dollar and the stock market reacted with a fall. Experts believe that the overseas currency will continue to remain under pressure for the next two weeks, until US ministries and departments resume work. Also, traders believe that the dollar will weaken against the background of the normalization of the monetary policy of the world central banks. Previously, the United States Federal Reserve was the only key regulator, but now the central banks have begun to influence the balance of rates.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for March 2018

Statistics of the ruble exchange rate to the US dollar since the beginning of 2018 (data of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation)

January 9 57,0466
January 16 56,4193
January 22 56,5784
January 29 56,3153
February 5th 56,6109
12th of February 57,9751

The factor that influenced the growth of the dollar in Russia and the depreciation of the ruble were data on oil production and the adjustment of its volumes in the United States. The price of oil is still the main factor that determines the value of the domestic currency. The deterioration of the situation will occur if not from March 1, then at the end of the month.

Forecasts of analysts and experts

Meanwhile, the forecasts of experts from other countries are not so rosy. They believe that the Russian ruble may collapse already at the end of March. According to the report of UBS and Nordea, the ruble will begin to fall even at a price of $ 70 per barrel of oil. Among the factors that keep the domestic currency afloat, they call:

  • operations conducted by the Ministry of Finance of Russia for the purchase of foreign currency;
  • the expected tightening of anti-Russian sanctions;
  • decreased investor interest in carry trade transactions.

The combination of these reasons, according to analysts' forecast, will lead to the fact that at the end of next month the ruble will lose at least 4%. A possible fall will lead to an increase in the dollar. Chief analyst at Globex Bank Viktor Veselov: “If the forecast is confirmed (the consensus inflation forecast is 2%), then the dollar may strengthen against world currencies, as the likelihood of the interest rate increase by the Fed will increase". The expert believes that the free dollar liquidity, formed after the collapse of the American market, could come back and attract investor interest. The Russian ruble could also develop according to a similar scenario, but an increase in US oil production will lead to a decrease in demand for it, the price will be under pressure, respectively, and the ruble too.

This forecast adheres to the majority of Russian experts. It is expected that the ruble exchange rate will decline to the corridor 57.30-58.90 per one US dollar. Such an indicator is possible in the case of stabilization of world markets, including the US - the termination of panic sales of risky assets is expected. At the same time, Natalia Shilova, who holds the post of director of the macroeconomic forecasting center at Binbank, is confident that the end of February will be favorable for the domestic currency, since this period has a tax period and, possibly, an increase in Russia's rating.

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