What will happen to the ruble in 2019 in Russia
In 2019, the ruble expects a moderate weakening, which will be associated with the impact of fundamental factors. In addition, the dynamics of the foreign exchange market takes into account the growth of geopolitical tensions. The expansion of Western sanctions leads to an outflow of capital, which is reflected in the fluctuation of the domestic currency.
The adjustment of currency quotations in January-April 2018 corresponds to fundamental factors, representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development are confident. The overvalued ruble, which was observed in previous periods, was completely leveled. As a result, the value of the domestic currency returned to its equilibrium value.
Experts note the factors that will determine the trends of the foreign exchange market in the near future:
- The dynamics of oil prices. Recovery of quotations to 65-70 dollars per barrel. strengthens the position of the Russian currency.
- Geopolitical tensions. The expansion of US sanctions leads to volatility in financial markets and worsens the investment attractiveness of Russian assets.
- The resumption of growth of the domestic economy and the elimination of existing budget imbalances.
Economic factors will support the position of the domestic currency. In the framework of the baseline scenario, the cost of "black gold" in the near future will be fixed at $ 70 per barrel. At the same time, the Russian economy will continue to gain momentum after a prolonged crisis. However, the geopolitical situation continues to deteriorate.
US sanctions are related to the following conflict issues:
- interference with elections;
- opposition in the east of Ukraine;
- the development of the conflict in Syria.
The dynamics of these factors will determine what will happen to the ruble in Russia in 2019. At the same time, analysts are considering three main scenarios for the near future.
Perspectives for 2019
The basic forecast of experts suggests the following combination of factors:
- oil prices will remain in the range of 65-70 dollars per barrel .;
- economic growth will reach 2%;
- the absence of new sanctions from the West.
This scenario provides a moderate weakening of the course - within 3-5%. As a result, the dollar quotes reached the mark of 65 rubles / dollars.The weakening of the Russian currency will lead to an increase in budget revenues. The authorities will be able to balance the state treasury, which will be the key to financial stability.
Pessimists expect a decrease in oil prices to $ 55-60 per barrel, which will be possible due to an increase in oil production in the United States. Shale projects are the main beneficiaries of the increase in oil prices. Unlike representatives of OPEC and Russia, American companies are free to increase the supply of raw materials. As a result, there will be a surplus of oil on the market, which will lead to price adjustments.
Under this scenario, restrictions from the West (primarily the United States) will expand in the near future. Under attack will be the key sectors of the domestic economy:
- banking system;
- defense complex;
- fuel and energy complex.
Sanctions will affect the financial position of the largest Russian companies. Without support from the state, many organizations will not be able to service their debts, which will lead to volatility in the foreign exchange market.In addition, the technological gap between the domestic economy will increase.
The pessimistic scenario provides for the weakening of the ruble to 68-70 rubles / dollar. Experts also note additional factors that will affect the strengthening of the dollar:
- The tightening of the Fed policy. The US regulator will continue to raise the key rate, which will strengthen the dollar. In turn, the Central Bank intends to adhere to the opposite policy, reducing the cost of financial resources. In such conditions, experts predict an acceleration of speculative capital outflow, which will put pressure on the position of the domestic currency.
- Active interventions by the Ministry of Finance, which increase the demand for currency.
The most pessimistic scenario implies the refusal to prolong the OPEC + transaction for 2019, which can lead to a sharp decline in the cost of oil. As a result, experts allow the collapse of quotations to $ 40 per barrel, which will lead to a strengthening of the dollar to 75-80 rubles / dollars.
Optimists rely on the following combination of factors:
- the cost of a barrel will be held above $ 70;
- relations with the United States will move into a constructive course, which implies a partial lifting of restrictions.
Stabilization of external factors will lead to improved macroeconomic indicators. GDP growth will accelerate to 2.5%, experts predict, but will continue to lag behind the pace of development of the world economy. To eliminate this imbalance, the government needs to introduce reforms that will attract additional investment and increase the competitiveness of the Russian economy.
The optimistic scenario assumes the stabilization of the domestic currency in the range of 60-62 rubles / USD. A more substantial ruble appreciation remains unlikely, since this trend will lead to a deterioration in budgetary performance. As a result, the government will have to look for new sources to finance the budget deficit.